There’s something unsettling about talking to someone who has spent decades working on technology that could make millions of people obsolete. Sven Beiker, Managing Director of Silicon Mobility and lecturer in the automotive industry at Stanford University, is definitely modest about it all. He speaks of the cautious optimism of someone who has thought deeply about what he is helping to build, and who is not entirely comfortable with where it might lead.
We met on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi Autonomous Summit in November, where the best of the self-driving car industry came together to celebrate their progress. There’s a lot to celebrate: robo-taxis that once seemed like the stuff of science fiction are now ferrying passengers in Phoenix, San Francisco, Austin and Las Vegas. In China, they operate in Beijing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Wuhan and Shanghai. Now Abu Dhabi itself is joining the club.
Beiker, a German automotive engineer who has lived in Silicon Valley for more than 20 years, knows this world intimately. His background is in the private sector, where he has worked “as an academic, as an engineer and as a consultant”. When I ask if he talks about the spontaneous future with hope or optimism, he answers without hesitation: “Hope for the best, certainly, but in a limited way, because there are challenges. But I think the opportunities outweigh the risks.”
He tells me that he visited China in August, he went to Beijing, Shenzhen and Guangzhou. What he found surprised him. He says: “I was very surprised by the level of performance and ability of self-driving cars. “As a Westerner and a German car engineer, I really appreciate Waymo cars” – the self-driving cars owned by Alphabet that were the first in this game. “I didn’t think that Chinese companies are at the same level, but they are at the same level. In my opinion, they are on the same level.”
When I press him that the Chinese are actually the best, he is cautious. “I’m not sure I can say in advance. What I can say makes them different from what I see in the United States is that there are three companies, Pony Ai, Baidu and WeRide. They are all at a very similar level.” Expresses in the United States, mainly Waymo only. “So, in that sense, in terms of the number of companies, China might be ahead.”
People increasingly talk about AI and automation as a race, but Beiker challenges this framing. “With a race, you usually have a clear beginning and a clear end. The beginning? That’s basically the state of transportation as we know it. But what’s the finish line? Is the finish line the first successful deployment? Is a certain percentage of traffic covered? Are all driverless cars, and human-driven cars no longer allowed?” Comparisons to the space race of the 1950s and 60s don’t hold, he says, because there’s nothing like putting a man on the moon. Instead, there is “definitely a competition for strategy, prestige and ultimately, market share”.
Abu Dhabi, he says, has huge advantages. Good weather helps, because “senses have problems with heavy rain, snow, fog”. New infrastructure compared to a compact environment also makes deployment easier. Then there is a “receptive government – a receptive business environment that attracts industry”. He draws parallels with Phoenix, as well as other Chinese cities. “If you go to the autonomous driving test site in the south of Beijing, it’s basically a big office park and a commercial area. It’s more or less an infrastructure chessboard. And that really supports the introduction of such technology. Whereas, if you go to Rome or Paris, it’s very different.”
I confess to Beiker that I love to drive, and ask if the days of doing it are numbered. He says: “I can’t say that the days are numbered and it will pass anytime soon. There will definitely be more automation, but the point that you won’t be able to drive yourself anymore, I think that’s a long way in the future – up to 30 years.”
But what comes after the self-driving car? What is the next evolution? Here, Beiker offers something really interesting. “In my opinion, the self-driving car is a physical extension of the Internet. The Internet moves between data and information. Self-driving cars and trucks move between people and goods. When you put all of this together, that’s when the magic of innovation will happen.”
The analogy is more than superficial. “Some of the thoughts and ideas of network theory from the Internet apply to transportation when it becomes automated. Because then it becomes a question of egress, availability, nodes, scheduling and maintenance. Where do you put the cars when you don’t need them? When do you use them, and at what time?…”
I tell him it sounds like he’s describing the ultimate Internet of Things and he’s quick to add a caveat.
“Transportation will always be a physical activity, until we invent teleportation. Computer power will help a lot, because we can’t pressure the way we travel. We can’t pressure people to make it work properly.”
He also points out that the issue of the business of changing the means of transportation does not exist. “What we’re seeing right now is replacing human drivers. Companies are pitching it as cost savings,” but guess what? At the moment, there are actually not a few people involved, because there are still people who oversee those cars, take care of these cars, service those cars, clean those cars. The business case is not there yet.”
He uses twenty years of experience living in California to explain what happened. He says: “This is the new system of Silicon Valley. “Incorporate the technology, build a new market – the business model exists as an afterthought, once you figure out what to do with it.” He adds that the companies behind this new technology “often invest billions of dollars to bring this technology to the streets. The business case is not yet there. It is a bet on the future, that at some point things change completely.
Does he ever worry about where all this is going? He says he does, but he’s equally hopeful. He admits that he sometimes worries about the degree to which artificial intelligence is controlled. “I have concerns that it is not always being used and managed properly.”
He adds that the tension that exists between inventors and investors may threaten to cause this new technology to spread faster than the public can get it.
“Usually, there are great minds with outstanding ideas and skills – that would be the genius. And then the investors. That can be an explosive mix. This is what worries me – that society is facing something that we may not be able to handle, because investors want to scale it up. When you invest a few billion dollars in something, you want to see a normal return on investment. What does that mean? It’s a little scary.”
The technology itself can be controlled. The question is whether the combination of brilliant minds, big money and pressure to scale can be managed. As our cars become places on the great virtual internet, we’re about to find out.
