Millions of people across the Caribbean are struggling to cope with the devastating effects of Hurricane Melissa, which tore through the region this week.
Like so many storms, Melissa strengthened quickly, defined when the maximum wind speed that supported it increased by 51 km / h over 24 hours.
Melissa was strengthened by 112 km / h at the same time, which makes it a case that some call it too strong quickly.
As we continue to burn fossil fuels, pumping CO2 into the atmosphere, the planet continues to warm, causing MyRIAD to change weather patterns and the overall climate.
So what role did climate change play in Hurricane Melissa?
Warm seas
Scientists are better at analyzing the effects of climate change on extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods and hurricanes.
There are several organizations organizing their brotherhood, including Environment and Climate Change Canada.
One of these organizations – which includes climate scientists from around the world – Let’s get together. It did a quick analysis of Hurricane Melissa and found that both climate change and natural variability played a role.
It has been found that storms similar to Melissa are 10 percent behind and 10 percent windier than before because of our changing climate. Natural diversity played a role in its formation and course.
One of the main ways in which climate change plays a role is through sea change. Temperatures are historically warmer than normal, and warm water acts as fuel for hurricanes. Warmer water, more fuel.
Alley Wll Winkley, meteorologist Central Centrala group of independent scientists reporting on climate change, say the temperature of the Caribbean Sea is from 1.4 c to 2 c warmer than average.
“We know that those water temperatures are made anywhere from 500 to 700 times which might be warmer this time of year this year when we as people put in the ocean,” said Wilkley..
This could contribute to rapid strengthening, as four of the five hurricanes formed in the Atlantic Basin.
“This is something we didn’t see a few decades ago but now we see it at least every season, if not most of the time [a] Season,” Wilkley said.
High spirits
Another independent analysis was carried out by Imperial College London’s Grantham Institute, which focuses on climate change and the environment.
Its use College Hurricane Model (IRIS)The analysis found that climate change increases Melissa’s wind speed by seven percent, or 18 km / h.
A video taken from an aircraft of the US Air Force from the 53RD Weather Reconnaissance squadron, also known as Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters, as it looked like it was flying towards the eye of Hurricane Melissa on Monday, as the storm approached Jamaica.
While many people focus on the rapid strengthening of hurricanes, Ralph Toumi, director of the Grantham Institute and co-author, says that’s not what we actually have to deal with.
“People talk about rapid intensification. I think … that’s fair enough, but it actually happened days before the landslide … grew rapidly in the 24-hour category,” he said.
“The other intensity is that as it got closer to this island, it actually got worse because it was a category 6 … but we don’t have this category because anything is high risk. So there is no need.”
The analysis also concluded that this type of storm event was almost four times more frequent than in pre-industrial times.
“We think it’s like the industries before the warming happened, it would have been like one in 8,000 years,” Toumi said. “Even now [it] it would be like a 1,000-year event, 2,000 years. So now it’s very possible, but then [the] The title of the headlines is basically four times more. “
As for destruction, the authors found that without climate change, a weak storm would have been 12 percent less damaging. (They weren’t too focused on the extent of the damage, as it’s too early to tell what that amount will be.)
What does it all mean?
While the numbers may vary between fast teams.
As we pump more fuel into our atmosphere, the oceans — which absorb more than 90 percent of the excess heat trapped in greenhouse gases — will continue to warm, and hurricanes will continue to be destroyed, and hurricanes will continue to be destroyed.
Asked by CBC News what this means for the future, Toumi said, “I think what it is, you know, there are limits to adaptability. ‘ And there are definitely benefits, you know, to some extent.
“But you can’t adapt to stage 5. It will cost you luck. Basically, you can’t build that kind of resilience. So there are limits to adaptability.”
