Bitcoin went under the support of the three-day Ichimoku Cloud on Wednesday, prompting Phritalch expert Dr Cat (@DocTorCatx) to flag the first decisive warning of the bulls while explaining the conditional signals at the end of the month. Sharing the chart on X, he wrote: “Finally the bulls lost the 3D Kumo support which is a clear red flag to look for.” He warned that the collapse does not guarantee a straight slide-line, adding that “Kumo is very big here which means that the price can be spiky / turbulent and behind subs with buths with bounces etc.” “”
Why the next bitcoin window opens on October 31
The analyst conducted the following tests through the lens of the Ichimoku period price structure and the weekly basis. “Probably the clearest indicator now to watch will be the time cycles and whether the Kijun Sen with the whole week will hold,” he said, explaining the levels at $105.700 for the current week and “$109,559” next week. In the ichimoku method, the kijun Sen Sen Sen Sen is used as the return axis; Continuous closure at the bottom tends to ensure pressure drop, while line protection can ensure tile control without getting too high too quickly.
DR Cat’s closest line in the sand in terms of daily closes is clear: “If today closes above $113k we have no indication of continued risk.” That threshold sits alongside his wide-ranging long-term status. He also pointed out that “it’s been a long time”.
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Instead of declaring the bottom hard, he now considers the feeling as a dangerous thing in itself: “I said recently that it is not the feeling that I am most worried about the red flags … And today after I just try to guess whether the bottom is not there or not.”
You get increased points when attacking on the ground. “The short-term causes will be to revive the low crash briefly after the 13th of October, the same, the same but after the 26th of October.” In other words, a rapid acceleration after October 13 can raise temporary alarms, while Fresh Lows registered after October 19 or October 26 can strengthen the case that the correction phase has a lot to run. He also downplayed the problems of the straight snapback, warning that “even if it’s down, the V-shaped recovery is still uncomfortable.”
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Against that regime, Dr. Cat still points to a certain window of bullish confirmation. AnchOring to ichimou’s Chikou span is aligned with the daily and three-day period, he said “the first window of opportunity for a bull breakout above the Athst in October.” That time frame is critical: The October 31 mark is the first possible opening, not a guarantee, against the price to stabilize around or above the weekly kijun and avoid those bearish based on the day.
The shared chart emphasizes the nuance: The price of entering below the three-day cloud is a negative mehendi, but the size of the cloud and the proximity of the high name of the period support the acquisition of Choppy instead of the end of the month.
Taken together, Dr. Cat’s framework is binary but conditional. A daily goodbye above $113,000 could be dangerous “immediately” and keep the weekly kijun playing at $105,700 this week and $109,559 next week. Failure to hold those rails – especially if it is accompanied by renewed renewal after the 19th or 26th – can strengthen the swelling of the repair and postpone any attempt to break.
As the calendar tightens, the market now has a clear checklist for October 31, when, in his model, the “first window” opens a movement that can threaten and pass the entire high period.
At press time, Bitcoin stood at $111,479.
The featured image is made with DALL.E, a chart from ChattingView.com
