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Analysis: Is Barcelona close to disaster?

Last season it was unusual to hear Barcelona’s system described as a high-wire act, if not suicidal. Sounding like a race car or a suspiciously cheap health supplement, the high-line, high-pressure, high-octane approach seems to confuse the world, unable to understand how other teams couldn’t get better at a puzzle with a seemingly simple solution. In their last two matches, defeats to Girona and Atletico Madrid, Barcelona have been similarly beaten by teams that have blown the air with incredible ease. Barcelona looked down.

A sense of vertigo was felt in the Metropolitano, four goals conceded in the first half, their worst defeat to Atletico in 86 years, death staring the Blaugrana players in the face. It’s not the first time that Barcelona have been beaten, and it’s not the first time that their top line has been exposed, but this time there were fears for their safety, and the loud Metropolitano went nuts about it.

Four days later in Montilivi, Barcelona had to react. Hansi Flick, by all accounts rather arrogant after their Atletico Armageddon, should have scared his players back to their normal thinking. Girona didn’t cause as much damage, and it was a late, controversial winner from Fran Beltran that probably got us into this wider test of Flick’s approach. Tellingly about the game itself, Barcelona’s defense was beaten in the same way, at a pace that was not so far from what happened four days earlier.

Photo by Judit Cartiel/Getty Images

Analysis of last season often left out that Barcelona’s approach was a calculated risk. Compared to this stage last season in La Liga, Barcelona has seven points more, has scored one goal less (64) and conceded one less (24). The numbers aren’t sensational, but no team rating in El Clasico really makes sense without the actual point at which the measuring stick is placed; this time an improved Real Madrid, at least in terms of numbers.

Last season Flick was able to look at his team and concluded that his team has the ability to score very few goals, especially the Spaniards can live with. Picking up a sketch of Xavi Hernandez, he designed a blueprint for the most effective use of Raphinha. If his pressing was matched by his speed and his ability to get into the middle of the pitch, Robert Lewandowski’s marauding nature remained unquestioned. Lamine Yamal was the nexus. Either he can get the ball to them, or make sure enough SWAT teams are sent to stop him that there is plenty of room for someone else.

That combination allowed Flick to gamble on his back line getting hit four or five times a game, once or twice, he conceded. The trade-off was that his side would get five or six chances, and with those three in the hole, Flick felt comfortable telling the dealer to spin until he got the cards he wanted.

Even if Barcelona’s overall numbers don’t differ too much, the front three tell a story that better matches the fury they faced, compared to last season’s storm. At the same time, Diario AS points out that their back three scored 68 goals and provided 37 assists, compared to 41 goals and 21 assists this season. Between Raphinha’s injury and Lewandowski’s exposure, their minutes dropped by 50%. The Polish veteran has had peaks and troughs at Barcelona before, getting solid numbers to back him up with mixed eye tests. This season, his teammate does not want to look at Lewandowski in the box, which is a sign that Flick’s loss of faith is based on internal team consensus.

Despite their absence, the two most obvious changes are Inigo Martinez and Pedri. The Basque defender has been replaced by Eric Garcia, who despite Barcelona’s defensive struggles has emerged as one of the best players this season. Whether it’s missing Martinez, or a dip in nature after an excellent 18 months, Pau Cubarsi doesn’t look the same around him. As a partnership, not only do they have ten years of experience, Garcia and Cubarsi are very similar, they were raised with the same doctrine, and they see the same solutions.

Just as Martinez provided a natural counterweight to Cubarsi, Pedri is part of Barcelona’s aggressive style. Frenkie de Jong is a vertical thinker, Dani Olmo thrived in an attacking position against the Bundesliga, and in the football of two decades earlier, Fermin Lopez might have found himself playing up front as a number nine – for which Lewandowski is a better foil than Ferran Torres. Generating time in midfield, understanding the current state of the game, Pedri created chaos that Flick wanted to create on purpose. English has yet to find a way to incorporate what Pedri has beyond borrowing ‘pausa’ from Spanish. This year he has missed 13 games, which he missed once last year in this category.

Barcelona were repeatedly exposed by Girona.
Photo via ASSOCIATED PRESSAgencia AP

Before this back-to-back defeat, Barcelona were on a winning streak of 15 out of 16, and with Pedri and Raphinha back to form, there is reason for Flick to believe he can still take them apart like a blip. Montilivi was the first time Barcelona lost this season with Raphinha in the first game of the XI. Two midweek free games and a home game against 19th-placed Levante, and Villarreal, who have yet to take a point from the top three, are ideal conditions for Flick to undergo a full medical.

The most worrying thing is that a report came out on Friday night after the defeat of Atletico which states that the players discussed changing their approach with Flick, to reduce the risk that existed when Pedri and Raphinha were not available. Against Girona, Barcelona’s line was as high as it was in Madrid, higher than it has been for large stretches of the season – a clear indication of Flick’s opinion on that point.

If Flick’s players begin to question his vision, to feel exposed and vulnerable as was hinted at last season, then the problem is real. The room for doubt in the game of good margins that Flick wants is not there, and their clashes with Girona and Atletico were a visible manifestation of that doubt. It doesn’t matter if it’s a system or a method, any manager is in a dangerous position if his players second-guess their orders, but in the case of the way Barcelona play, a breakdown not only destroys confidence, but cuts big chunks.

With the changes mentioned above, the strong thread becomes even thinner. Even if Barcelona can find the missing symbiosis between their press and the offside trap, Flick works in the same calculated danger, but the equation has changed. Since he doesn’t seem to want to think about changing the formula, Flick must find a way to reduce the variables, because for the first time since he arrived in Barcelona, ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​



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