Oman launches $40bn development plan predicts 700,000 jobs in Vision 2040 roadmap

This program represents an important stage in the development of economic and social reforms, built on comprehensive policies and structures focused on efficiency, sustainability and competitiveness.

It places particular emphasis on financial stability and economic diversification, which the government has identified as essential to securing and sustaining long-term growth.

Low carbon growth

Central to the plan is the transition to a low-carbon economy, accompanied by the implementation of environmentally sustainable policies. These measures are in line with global efforts to reduce climate change and conserve natural resources for the benefit of future generations.

Positioned as a bridge from economic recovery to a phase of growth and expansion, the program is supported by an integrated legal and regulatory framework designed to set Oman on a path towards a prosperous and sustainable economic future.

The Eleventh Five-Year Development Plan is organized around three long-term plans:

• First Work Plan (2026–2027)
• Second Program of Work (2028–2029)
• 2030 Concurrent Action Plan dedicated to the assessment and preparation of the Twelve Five-Year Plan.

Oman Development Plan 2026 – 2030

From a planning perspective, the framework is organized in two main ways. The Economic Pathway focuses on helping the economy meet challenges, drive sustainable diversification, improve export capacity and generate employment.

The Development Pathway focuses on strengthening infrastructure and meeting development needs to achieve balanced social and environmental progress, while increasing household income in line with the aspirations of Oman Vision 2040.

Dr. Said Mohammed Al Saqri, Minister of Economy, said the program focuses on promoting promising economic sectors with high potential for growth, strong capacity to create jobs and significant contribution to the Gross Domestic Product.

He identified the Manufacturing Industry, Tourism and the Digital Economy as three core sectors, supported by enabling sectors including mining, food security, renewable energy, transport and logistics, and Education and Health.

He added that the Tenth Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) generated 175,000 jobs, while the new plan is expected to create 300,000 positions across the public and private sectors between 2026 and 2030.

This equates to 60,000 opportunities per year, including 10,000 in the public sector and 50,000 in the private sector.

Growth forecasts and investment needs

Dr. Nasser Rashid Al Maawali, Secretary of the Ministry of Economy, highlighted the positive economic projections for 2026, with expected growth of 4 percent and inflation kept at 1.4 percent.

He said that the preparatory work on the Eleventh Five-Year Development Plan began in July 2023 and includes broad public participation to ensure compliance in all state institutions and the objectives of Oman Vision 2040.

Dr. Nasser noted that the program requires an additional investment of approximately OR15.6bn ($40.6bn), directed to key economic and social sectors to accelerate growth and support the target rate of 5 percent.

The plan sets macroeconomic targets, including GDP growth of 4.6 percent at current prices and 4 percent at constant prices, an investment-to-GDP ratio of 28 percent at current prices, FDI inflows equal to 11 percent of GDP, and inflation at 2 percent.

It also aims to increase the private sector’s contribution to GDP at current rates to 56 percent, with a private sector investment ratio of 21 percent of GDP. Target growth rates include 4 percent for non-oil jobs and 2.6 percent for oil jobs at constant prices.

Strongest sectors in Oman

Potentially strongest sectors are expected to lead the expansion, with growth targets of 5.9 percent for Manufacturing, 10.8 percent for the Digital Economy, and 5.7 percent for Tourism.

Supporting sectors are expected to grow by an average of 4.2 percent in Agriculture and Forestry, 5 percent in Fisheries, 6.2 percent in Mining, 7 percent in Transport and Transportation, 3 percent in Education and 3.5 percent in Health.

The financial framework for this plan is based on an assumed oil price of $60 per barrel. General revenue is estimated at OR11.556bn ($30bn) over the plan period, compared to average public expenditure of OR12.222bn ($31.8bn), resulting in an estimated deficit of OR666m ($1.75bn).

Key financial indicators include an increase in non-oil revenue to 37.4 percent of total revenue at the end of the program. Annual development spending is estimated at OR900m ($2.3bn), with an additional OR400m ($1bn) allocated annually to economic transformation projects.

Average annual allocations for social protection are estimated at OR668m ($1.75bn).

This plan anticipates a significant increase in labor market programs, strengthening the role of the Ministry of Labor’s Training and Employment Support Center, developing civilian employment structures in the private sector, and increasing the role of governments in generating sustainable employment opportunities.

New jobs in Oman

Economic modeling suggests up to 700,000 jobs could be created during the program, including approximately 300,000 direct roles for Omanis across the public and private sectors.

Private sector employment in Omanis is expected to be concentrated in retail (34.2%), construction (29.8%), industry (10.6%), tourism (8.7%) and transport (5.5%).

In total, the Eleventh Five-Year Development Plan includes 190 strategic plans that include the key elements of Oman Vision 2040, as well as dedicated plans for the Information and Communication Technology sector and youth and entrepreneurship.