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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has predicted that Americans will see “huge” refund checks next filing season thanks to the tax cuts in President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).
Bessent, who also serves as acting commissioner of the IRS, said this during an appearance on the “All-In Podcast.” The treasury secretary told reporters that the tax provisions of the act, which Trump signed in July, went into effect at the beginning of the year, and because most workers did not change their withholding, many could expect a big refund in 2026.
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President Donald Trump speaks with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the White House Digital Assets Summit at the White House on March 7, 2025, in Washington, DC. (Photos by Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
“I see that we’re going to have a big annual return in the first quarter because working Americans didn’t change their holdings,” Bessent told the “All-In Podcast” hosts. “I think households could see, depending on the number of employees, a $1,000-$2,000 refund.”
Bessent’s prediction echoes that of the Tax Foundation, a nonprofit tax policy organization. The group said in a Dec. 17 report that “refunds will be larger than usual in the upcoming filing season due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s (OBBBA) tax cuts in 2025.”
President Donald Trump signs the sweeping spending and tax bill, known as the “One Big Beautiful Act,” at the White House in Washington, DC, on July 4, 2025. (Ken Cedeno/Reuters/Reuters)
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The foundation reported its estimate that OBBBA would reduce individual taxes by $144 billion by 2025, adding that outside estimates suggest that up to $100 billion of that could go to higher tax returns for Americans. While not everyone will see a big jump in their refund, the Tax Foundation said the savings from OBBBA can increase the average refund by up to $1,000.
“But because the IRS did not adjust the withholding tables after the law was passed, workers often continued to withhold more taxes from their paychecks than required by the new law. As a result, instead of gradually receiving the benefit of a tax cut with a higher take-home pay during the year, most taxpayers will receive it all at once when they file their returns,” the Tax Foundation wrote.
The Trump administration expects the largest round of tax refunds in “history” this spring of 2026. (Getty Images / Getty Images)
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The Tax Foundation lists seven major tax cuts that went into effect under OBBBA that could impact higher refunds, including increases to the child tax credit and standard deduction, a higher SALT deduction cap, and new or expanded deductions for seniors, car loan interest, tip income and overtime pay.
