Emirates NBD, one of the largest banks in the region, said that strong momentum, rising tourism, reduced regional tensions, and strong private and public sector activity will lead to a strong performance of Dubai’s economy in 2026.
In a paper published on Tuesday, Emirates NBD’s Senior Economist, Daniel Richards, said Dubai will grow by 4.5 percent, surpassing the IMF’s global growth forecast of 3.1 percent in 2026.
A strong impulse
While full-year GDP figures are not available, momentum remains strong with year-on-year growth of 4.4 percent in 2025 so far compared with 3.3 percent growth in 2023 and 3.2 percent in calendar 2024. Dubai’s economy will enter 2026 with strong momentum, as the monthly PMI survey of 5 and 5P for October rises significantly from the S & 5 monthly Global survey of S & 5 for October. learning from January 2025, and new orders are being picked up immediately.
Richards wrote: “Looking ahead, the expected looser monetary policy from the US as the Federal Reserve cuts rates, and a reduction in global trade uncertainty will benefit the wider UAE.”
Increasing visitor numbers
Emirates NBD pointed out that the reduction of regional tensions and its potential profit in the tourism sector will benefit Dubai. “With the relative calm in Gaza, and the cooling between the US and Iran, we see scope for another strong year for the tourism trade in Dubai in 2026 after forecasting growth of around 5 percent in 2025 (there were 15.7 million visitors from January to October, 5 percent YoY).
The potential for growth in this sector next year is boosted by the fact that the YoY decline in South Asian visitors seen in 2025 will be over the horizon. Stricter visa regulations resulted in an 8.4 percent YoY decline in visitors from the region, normally one of the largest source markets, in the first 10 months of 2025.
“However, the growth has recently turned positive every month, and the decline of the year has softened, and we see a high potential here next year. This will include the continued strong growth of tourists from other source markets, fueled by the continued development of the tourism offer,” said Emirates NBD.
The expansion of existing conferences and lectures, as well as the introduction of new events, will also stimulate the growth of tourism, while medical tourism plays a major role. The bank also highlighted the development of Al Maktoum International Airport, which it said will strengthen the work in the coming decades.
Dubai’s population growth
Population growth shows no signs of slowing by 2025, the bank said.
Many factors in terms of entertainment and hospitality offerings that encourage a strong influx of tourists encourage the rapid growth of the domestic population, including country features such as low taxes (especially while taxes are rising in many source countries), high levels of safety and security, and the introduction of the long-stay Golden Visa a few years ago.
The number of Dubai residents broke the 4 million mark for the first time during the year. The official estimate puts the population at 4.04 million as of mid-November, up 5.4 percent YoY and 18.7 percent from November 2020.
“We expect that factors supporting population growth will continue to play into 2026, not least given the government’s stated goal of hitting 5.8 million residents by 2040. This will drive demand for real estate, increased construction activity, and a range of other services including education, telecommunications, and health care,” Richards wrote.
