Trump’s media company is set to release the prediction market as a social reality
Donald Trump appears to be getting back into the casino business, so to speak.
This time it won’t be Atlantic City slot machines and roulette tables: on Tuesday, Crump Media Firm, Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.
The new product, called “Prediction Truth,” will enable social reality users to bet on various future events such as election results, sports, and commodity prices. These wagers will take the form of prediction contracts, which are usually sold in cents and show the percentage of confidence observers have in possible outcomes. If you bet correctly, the contract stays at $1, but if you are wrong, it goes to zero.
TMTG’s new offering will compete with existing prediction markets such as the existing kalshi and polaymarket, which are based in New York but do not offer services to clients for the future trading period of 2022.
The truth predicts strategies to start in the US First and then expand to the rest of the world “and all the necessary needs.” The product will begin beta testing soon, according to Tuesday’s announcement.
President Trump was the largest shareholder of TMTG, but after winning the general election last year, he transferred 114,750,000 shares to the trust controlled by his son Donald Trump Jr.
Digital prediction markets present several philosophical questions. Proponents say there is a limited amount of attention, not arguing that betting markets give people a window into what the big picture is actually going to happen, free from the influence of powerful organizations and political agendas.
“The point of the polymarket is that from the point of view of traders, it is a place of betting, but from the point of view of viewers it is a place of news,” Eletherum founder Vitalik Buterin said last year. “There are all kinds of people (including elites) on Twitter and the Internet who have made dangerous and inaccurate predictions about conflicts, and being able to see whether a person has a 2% chance or a 50% significant chance can help keep people in tune.”
But sites like polymarket have also been criticized for offering war markets where users can bet on ongoing geopolitical conflicts. “Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?” It currently lives with a 3% chance in the polymarket, while “the US will attack Venezuela in 2025?” at 14%.
The current level of betting liquidity in these events does not comply with their results, but critics say that if enough money flows into any powerful currency following the scales and does something – killing people, it will happen in real life.
“An example has passed, but the market for predicting an influential event will start to use the action or support the liquid enough if it is not the original intention,” it means that it is real liquid enough, “said Zach Rynes, the public connection of the Oracled Network Chainlink, in X last year. “If these markets are sold for $ 100 million + money, will that change the result?
CFTC regulations prohibit event contracts that index industries, killing people, war or other illegal activities, so US approved firms do not offer direct attack markets like polymarket’s. But that does not mean that those markets are free from indestructible conflicting days: in Kalshi, gamblers can reconcile the President of Venezuela Nicolás Maduro, will the market pay the final price rather than settle at $ 1 or zero).
Those conflicting motivations can be seen to be largely taken from the platform of the prediction markets in close association with the President of the United States.
Gizmodo came to social reality to comment and update when we hear back.
